A daily summary and commentary of events and factors that affect the global markets, with a particular emphasis on the foreign exchange markets.
Share this story:
Andrew Kositkun Foreign Exchange Head Trader
Markets are once again quiet, continuing the theme from Friday as basically every market in Europe remains closed on holiday, and Japan begins counting down to its Golden Week holiday.
One market that hasn't been quiet is the crude market. Crude prices are currently up ~2.2% on the session as the U.S. has announced that it will not renew its waivers allowing countries to buy Iranian oil without facing U.S. sanctions. The current set of waivers - issued to China, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey - expire May 2. U.S. sanctions were put in place in hopes of reducing Iranian oil exports to zero, cutting off the Iranian regime's principle source of revenue.
In an effort to reduce the impact of these sanctions, the U.S. has reportedly secured commitments from producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE to offset the reduction in global supply. However, there will likely be side effects to this decision. If Saudi Arabia and the UAE were to increase production, it could complicate the output agreement among OPEC nations and its allies. In an ironic twist, this OPEC production deal was put in place after Saudi Arabia was blindsided by the U.S.' decision to grant waivers, a decision that pushed oil prices down into a bear market.
As a final point, the U.S.' Iranian sanctions could also have an impact beyond Iran and the oil markets. China, the largest buyer of Iranian crude, has reiterated its opposition to unilateral sanctions and has accused the U.S. of reaching beyond its jurisdiction, adding yet another complication to the trade talks between the two countries.
HERE ARE THE KEY NEWS STORIES FROM OVERNIGHT:
The U.K. Parliament returns from its recess tomorrow and is expected to bring back more Brexit related headlines with it. As it stands, cross party talks with Labour don't appear to be going anywhere.
PM May appears to have been given an ultimatum from her party to step down by June or be ousted. It has been reported that ~70% of Tory MPs want May to resign, however it should be noted that current rules do not allow a challenge to her until December.
Multiple Central Banks, including the Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan, meet this week. In Canada, the BoC is likely to confirm an extended pause in its tightening cycle. In Japan, the BoJ is expected to downgrade its inflation and reinforce its dovish stance.
Want to learn more about international finance, economics, and global events? Sign up for our other Foreign Exchange emails and videos!
Follow City National Bank on social media:
Non-deposit investment products:
Are not FDIC insured,
Are not deposits or other obligations of City National Bank and are not guaranteed by City National Bank, and
Are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal invested.
This report is for general information and education only and was compiled from data and sources believed to be reliable. City National Bank does not warrant that it is accurate or complete. Opinions expressed and estimates or projections given are those of the authors as of the date of the report with no obligation to update or notify of inaccuracy or change. This report is not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument discussed. It is not specific investment advice. Financial instruments discussed may not be suitable for the reader. Readers must make independent investment decisions based on their own investment objectives and financial situations. Prices and financial instruments discussed are subject to change without notice. Instruments denominated in a foreign currency are subject to exchange rate and other risks. City National Bank (and its clients or associated persons) may engage in transactions inconsistent with this report and may buy from or sell to clients or others the financial instruments discussed on a principal basis. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or further published by any person without the written consent of City National Bank. Please cite source when quoting.
Tune in for a guide to ETFs and investing strategies for potential long-term success. View in a browser Fidelity Fidelity Log in Creating a portfolio with ETFs: Why and how Creating a portfolio with ETFs: Why and how