Morning Commentary: “Everything is Coming up Roses”
Get link
Facebook
Twitter
Pinterest
Email
Other Apps
A daily summary and commentary of events and factors that affect the global markets, with a particular emphasis on the foreign exchange markets.
“Everything is Coming up Roses”
Share this story:
Alan Rose Foreign Exchange Senior Trader
We regularly remind our readers of the erratic nature of the markets as they seesaw back and forth between optimism and pessimism. This has been a steady feature of the markets going back to Q4 and we have no reason to believe this will change in the short run. For today, “everything is coming up roses,” the world is upbeat and positive, and the markets are back working in-sync. Global equities, G7 interest rates, and commodity prices are all higher and the U.S. dollar is weaker across the board as commodity-linked currencies are outperforming.
The backdrop for this optimism comes from a one-two punch of better-than-expected Asian and EZ data (see below) along with renewed optimism surrounding Brexit and positive story lines regarding the U.S.-China trade negotiations. Commodity prices have continued to march higher this year and have largely ignored the short term developments in global stocks and bonds.
Oil prices have been marching higher all year and are sitting at four-month highs; part of this move is related to OPEC production cuts. The same is true for iron ore and copper prices; avocado prices jumped by an amazing 34% yesterday on fears of the U.S. Southern Border being shut down and a lack of supply. How long this optimism and upbeat nature will last is anybody’s guess, but at least for today, the global economic picture looks like spring has arrived.
HERE ARE THE KEY NEWS STORIES FROM OVERNIGHT:
Australia reported better-than-expected February retail sales (+0.8%) and a much larger-than-expected trade surplus.
China reported a better-than-expected Service PMI for March where it rose to 54.4.
The EZ reported March service and composite PMI readings, and they both beat expectations rising respectively to 53.3 and 51.6.
One negative was the U.S ADP employment report that precedes the official labor market report on Friday. Consensus estimates were for a gain of 175,000 but the number badly missed coming in at only 129,000. For now, U.S. interest rates have ignored this news and remain firmly higher on the session.
Want to learn more about international finance, economics, and global events? Sign up for our other Foreign Exchange emails and videos!
Follow City National Bank on social media:
Non-deposit investment products:
•
Are not FDIC insured,
•
Are not deposits or other obligations of City National Bank and are not guaranteed by City National Bank, and
•
Are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal invested.
This report is for general information and education only and was compiled from data and sources believed to be reliable. City National Bank does not warrant that it is accurate or complete. Opinions expressed and estimates or projections given are those of the authors as of the date of the report with no obligation to update or notify of inaccuracy or change. This report is not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument discussed. It is not specific investment advice. Financial instruments discussed may not be suitable for the reader. Readers must make independent investment decisions based on their own investment objectives and financial situations. Prices and financial instruments discussed are subject to change without notice. Instruments denominated in a foreign currency are subject to exchange rate and other risks. City National Bank (and its clients or associated persons) may engage in transactions inconsistent with this report and may buy from or sell to clients or others the financial instruments discussed on a principal basis. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or further published by any person without the written consent of City National Bank. Please cite source when quoting.
View this email in your browser Want to watch a recording of yesterday's Simply Successful Investing Webinar. Just click here and use passcode 5q59Z&3M.
A daily summary and commentary of events and factors that affect the global markets, with a particular emphasis on the foreign exchange markets. Super Mario’s Next Challenge
Tune in for a guide to ETFs and investing strategies for potential long-term success. View in a browser Fidelity Fidelity Log in Creating a portfolio with ETFs: Why and how Creating a portfolio with ETFs: Why and how
Comments
Post a Comment