Monthly Forecast: June 2019

Foreign Exchange - Monthly Forecast
June 2019
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Andrew Kositkun
Andrew Kositkun
Foreign Exchange Analyst
YTD the USD has been supported by global central banks being equally/more dovish than the Fed, higher interest rates in the USD and weakness in the global manufacturing sector. All of these remain and, if anything, are further amplified by increased trade uncertainty. Moreover, the most recent Fed meeting broke from the trend of ever increasing dovishness. Read more...
The Japanese yen, which is seen as a safe haven asset, has been the clear outperformer within the G10 space this past month as risk sentiment deteriorated due to an escalation of tariffs between the U.S. and China. Read more...
The projected recovery in Eurozone GDP continues to be elusive despite Q1 2019 growth of 1.5% being a marked improvement over the second half of 2018. Reservations around future growth are supported by leading indicators that point to future growth closer to 1%. Read more...
The GBP has spent most of last month drifting lower. This move reflects the market's reassessment of possible Brexit outcomes. With PM May signaling that her premiership will end on June 7, the focus now shifts to the leadership contest to pick the next leader as his or her Brexit philosophy will determine the way forward. Read more...
Canada unfortunately finds itself in the middle of trade tensions from both the US-China trade standoff as well as NAFTA/USMCA ratification risk. Read more...
The AUD has been under pressure this past month due to a dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), an escalation of trade tensions and a weak domestic economic picture. As all three of these factors are expected to persist, expect the AUD to continue to be pressured. Read more...
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