Monthly Forecast: July 2019

A monthly commentary/summary that discusses our broader, long-term currency analysis.

July 2019 Share this story: Andrew Kositkun Foreign Exchange Analyst USD The key event for the USD over the past month has been the dovish shift from the Fed. This development has caused the USD to weaken and has increased expectations for rate cuts as soon as the Fed's meeting this month. While this shift from the Fed represents a dramatic shift in guidance relative to start of the year, there are some reservations on whether this signals broad based dollar weakness moving forward. Read more... JPY The outlook on the JPY has materially changed since our last currency outlook as a risk adverse backdrop supports flows into safe haven assets such as the JPY. On trade, US-China tensions dominate the headlines, and while the G20 meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi were constructive, uncertainty still remains around the actual ability to achieve a deal and the negative drag from already high tariffs remain. Read more... EUR In our past currency outlooks, we have been negative on the euro as economic data out of the single marketplace continues to disappoint, trade risks (auto tariffs) with the US remain and Italian uncertainty remains in the background. Read more... GBP The GBP has spent most of last month drifting lower. This move reflects the market's reassessment of possible Brexit outcomes. With PM May signaling that her premiership will end on June 7, the focus now shifts to the leadership contest to pick the next leader as his or her Brexit philosophy will determine the way forward. Read more... CAD Canada unfortunately finds itself in the middle of trade tensions from both the US-China trade standoff as well as NAFTA/USMCA ratification risk. Read more... AUD The AUD has been slowly grinding lower throughout the year and indications are that this trend should continue. Read more... Read More If we can help you with any Foreign Exchange needs, please email foreignexchange@cnb.com or call (800) 447‑4133. Want to learn more about international finance, economics, and global events? Sign up for our other Foreign Exchange emails and videos! Follow City National Bank on social media: Non-deposit investment products: • Are not FDIC insured, • Are not deposits or other obligations of City National Bank and are not guaranteed by City National Bank, and • Are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal invested. This report is for general information and education only and was compiled from data and sources believed to be reliable. City National Bank does not warrant that it is accurate or complete. Opinions expressed and estimates or projections given are those of the authors as of the date of the report with no obligation to update or notify of inaccuracy or change. This report is not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument discussed. It is not specific investment advice. Financial instruments discussed may not be suitable for the reader. Readers must make independent investment decisions based on their own investment objectives and financial situations. Prices and financial instruments discussed are subject to change without notice. Instruments denominated in a foreign currency are subject to exchange rate and other risks. City National Bank (and its clients or associated persons) may engage in transactions inconsistent with this report and may buy from or sell to clients or others the financial instruments discussed on a principal basis. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or further published by any person without the written consent of City National Bank. Please cite source when quoting. Unsubscribe from this list  |  Update email preferences This message has been sent to bank@banking.offers.report. Please do not reply to this email. To ensure the delivery of future emails, please add foreignexchange@emails.cnb.com to your email address book or safe sender list. Copyright ©2019 City National Bank – All Rights Reserved. 350 South Grand Avenue, 12th Floor, Los Angeles, CA 90071 City National Bank is a subsidiary of Royal Bank of Canada. TERMS & CONDITIONS  |  PRIVACY STATEMENT NMLSR ID# 536994 | City National Bank Member FDIC