Morning Commentary: Homer Dome!

Foreign Exchange - Morning Commentary
Homer Dome!
Share this story:
Alan Rose
Alan Rose
Foreign Exchange Senior Trader
With the Thanksgiving holiday approaching and with the government being closed tomorrow, there will be a larger than normal amount of economic reports being released this morning. Every one of the economic reports beat expectations and it is a reminder of the resiliency of the U.S. economy in the face of a trade war that has severely impacted many other major economies. It is also a reminder that the consumer is carrying an increasingly larger burden of GDP which is not a healthy situation over the medium to longer term.

To begin, Q3 GDP was revised higher from 1.9% to 2.1% with the personal consumption component beating expectations at 2.9%. Durable goods orders for October beat expectations by rising 0.6% against expectations of a decline of 0.9%. The capital goods orders non-defense component came in much stronger at 1.2% as did the non-defense ex-aircraft component at 0.8%. Jobless claims also came in stronger than expected at 213,000. Mortgage applications to refinance a home rose 4% for the week and were up 314% from one year ago. Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 1% for the week and were 55% higher than the same week one year ago.

Despite the data all exceeding expectations so far (more economic data to follow), the market reaction has been muted. U.S. interest rates did initially move higher and are still up on the session, but they are in the process of correcting lower again. Global equities are slightly in green territory and U.S. equities are expected to open nearly unchanged. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is mixed to slightly higher with the two key safe haven currencies (CHF and JPY) weaker along with gold this morning.

Even though the effects of the trade war are negatively impacting our GDP growth rates throughout the year, the combination of the Fed lowering interest three times this year and the continued downward pressure on interest rates has provided a cushion for the economy. Despite manufacturing and farming wearing the brunt of the trade war, other sectors have benefited and the overall economy has been able to continue to expand. It is a good sign as we head into our Thanksgiving Holiday.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING to all our clients and colleagues!
If we can help you with any Foreign Exchange needs, please email or call (800) 447‑4133.
Want to learn more about international finance, economics, and global events? Sign up for our other Foreign Exchange emails and videos!
Follow City National Bank on social media:
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Google Plus YouTube
Non-deposit investment products:
Are not FDIC insured,
Are not deposits or other obligations of City National Bank and are not guaranteed by City National Bank, and
Are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal invested.
This report is for general information and education only and was compiled from data and sources believed to be reliable. City National Bank does not warrant that it is accurate or complete. Opinions expressed and estimates or projections given are those of the authors as of the date of the report with no obligation to update or notify of inaccuracy or change. This report is not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument discussed. It is not specific investment advice. Financial instruments discussed may not be suitable for the reader. Readers must make independent investment decisions based on their own investment objectives and financial situations. Prices and financial instruments discussed are subject to change without notice. Instruments denominated in a foreign currency are subject to exchange rate and other risks. City National Bank (and its clients or associated persons) may engage in transactions inconsistent with this report and may buy from or sell to clients or others the financial instruments discussed on a principal basis. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or further published by any person without the written consent of City National Bank. Please cite source when quoting.
Unsubscribe from this list  |  Update email preferences
This message has been sent to Please do not reply to this email. To ensure the delivery of future emails, please add to your email address book or safe sender list.
Copyright ©2019 City National Bank – All Rights Reserved.
350 South Grand Avenue, 12th Floor, Los Angeles, CA 90071
City National Bank is a subsidiary of Royal Bank of Canada.
Equal Housing Lender
NMLSR ID# 536994 | City National Bank Member FDIC


Popular posts from this blog

Acquisitions or Alliances: What's Your Growth Strategy?