Morning Commentary: Cautious Optimism vs. Cautious Pessimism

Foreign Exchange - Morning Commentary
Cautious Optimism vs. Cautious Pessimism 
Share this story:
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Email
Andrew Kositkun
Andrew Kositkun
Foreign Exchange Head Trader
Currency markets remain a balance of optimism on the ongoing cyclical lift and concern on rising infection rates in the US and parts of the emerging markets. 

Thus far risk markets have mostly held up well and the broad USD has traded in a ~1.5% band over the past month.  While the recovery trade has formed a relative base, the overall momentum in FX reflation trades, including a now consensus USD short, has slowed.  Further gauges of global mobility have stalled and higher frequency data is not as encouraging as in early May. 

It should be acknowledged that an argument could be made for the impact of a second wave of infections to be less pronounced than the first.  This is due to a better understanding of the virus and lower mortality rates.  Nevertheless, rising infection rates should still dampen the recovery as it could lead to a more long lasting impact on consumer and business behavior that impacts both the US and global growth. 

Focusing on the US, one of the key themes in the FX markets has been a bias for USD weakness but it is important to note that rising US infections does not automatically imply USD weakness.  While it’s true that rising US infections will have a growth impact that is larger in the US than the rest of the world, the read-through isn’t that simple.  If US infections risk high enough, it could dent risk sentiment and be bullish for the USD due to its anti-cyclical/defensive characteristics as economic headwinds becomes a global rather than local phenomena.   

What this nets out to is an intensifying tug of war between improving data and infection rates that still lacks a decisive USD resolution.  Notably, the USD index was down ~0.7% last week but was up or flat against nearly half of the G10 currencies.  This likely leaves us in for more choppy USD consolidation with erratic week to week fluctuations.
HERE ARE THE KEY NEWS STORIES FROM OVERNIGHT:
  • Congress returns from its recess today and picks up on stimulus talks.  The prospects for another round of stimulus is uncertain with lawmakers facing small window to strike a deal before the August recess as both sides remain far apart.  Democrats have floated a $3.5 trillion plan while the Republican plan is around $1 trillion.  Further, President Trump insists that a payroll tax cut must be included, a redline issue for Democrats and some Republicans.  Notably, the extra $600 per week in jobless benefits expires at the end of this month.  Thus far there hasn’t been any agreement on an extension but there has been some discussion around an extension at a reduced $200 per week. 
  • US virus cases rose 2.2%, which is more than the 1.9% daily average over the past week.  Florida had its fifth consecutive day of more than 10,000 cases while Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti issued a warning that the city could be near another stay-at-home order.  
  • The EU reached a last minute deal on its rescue package.  Talks ended Saturday without a deal but EC President Michel introduced another compromise that cut the grant portion of the plan by EUR100 billion to EUR400 billion.  The surplus nations wanted grants capped at EUR350 billion and both sides settles on EUR390 billion.  The balance of the EUR750 billion program will be made through low interest loans. 
  • Brexit talks have reportedly hit another dead-end as accelerated talks have yet to result in any significant breakthrough.  Talks re-open again this week with a final round of negotiations is scheduled for August 17th.
If we can help you with any Foreign Exchange needs, please email foreignexchange@cnb.com or call (800) 447‑4133.
Want to learn more about international finance, economics, and global events? Sign up for our other Foreign Exchange emails and videos!
Follow City National Bank on social media:
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Google Plus YouTube
Non-deposit investment products:
Are not FDIC insured,
Are not deposits or other obligations of City National Bank and are not guaranteed by City National Bank, and
Are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal invested.
This report is for general information and education only and was compiled from data and sources believed to be reliable. City National Bank does not warrant that it is accurate or complete. Opinions expressed and estimates or projections given are those of the authors as of the date of the report with no obligation to update or notify of inaccuracy or change. This report is not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument discussed. It is not specific investment advice. Financial instruments discussed may not be suitable for the reader. Readers must make independent investment decisions based on their own investment objectives and financial situations. Prices and financial instruments discussed are subject to change without notice. Instruments denominated in a foreign currency are subject to exchange rate and other risks. City National Bank (and its clients or associated persons) may engage in transactions inconsistent with this report and may buy from or sell to clients or others the financial instruments discussed on a principal basis. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or further published by any person without the written consent of City National Bank. Please cite source when quoting.
Unsubscribe from this list  |  Update email preferences
This message has been sent to bank@banking.offers.report. Please do not reply to this email. To ensure the delivery of future emails, please add foreignexchange@emails.cnb.com to your email address book or safe sender list.
Copyright ©2020 City National Bank – All Rights Reserved.
350 South Grand Avenue, 12th Floor, Los Angeles, CA 90071
City National Bank is a subsidiary of Royal Bank of Canada.
TERMS & CONDITIONS  |  PRIVACY STATEMENT
Equal Housing Lender
NMLSR ID# 536994 | City National Bank Member FDIC
                                                           

Comments

Popular posts from this blog