Morning Commentary: Let’s Have Some Christmas Cheer!

Foreign Exchange - Morning Commentary

Let’s Have Some Christmas Cheer!

Share this story:
Alan Rose
Alan Rose
Foreign Exchange Head Trader
It’s a new week and we are almost exactly one month away from Christmas; the markets are attempting to look ahead to more upbeat and optimistic times and put all the negativity in the rear view mirror. Global equities (U.S. included) are on the upswing today along with higher commodity prices and this is a welcome change from all the pessimism over the past weeks. The background for this rally is based on the Italian government being open to adjusting its budget, and the U.K. and EU have agreed on a transition plan which is all welcome news.
Whether this is a correction in a bear trend or there is more to this rally than meets the eye remains to be seen as this week will be a pivotal week for the markets. Fed Vice Chairman Clarida speaks on Tuesday and Chairman Powell on Wednesday. Markets have priced out a number of future Fed rate hikes and the markets will be looking for validation on that point.  At the end of the week, the G20 meeting takes place in Argentina with the focal point on U.S. and China trade relations going forward.
Over the past number of weeks and months, a rare phenomenon has taken place in the markets. Stocks, bonds, and commodity prices are staging a rare simultaneous retreat. Global markets are on track for one of their worst years on record creating a background of angst, anxiety and uncertainty for investors and traders.
Global stocks and bonds could both finish the year in the red for the first time in at least a quarter century. Crude oil is already in bear market territory. 90% of the 70 asset classes tracked by Deutsche Bank are posting negative total returns in dollar terms for the year through mid-November. Markets will need a catalyst to change the negative market psychology that is causing investors to all exit at the same time – Hope springs eternal!
  • The German IFO business survey disappointed once again. The November reading came in at 102.0 against expectations of 102.3. October’s reading was 102.9 and this is the third straight month of declines. Cooling foreign demand and rising trade tensions are at the root of the persistent weakness.
If we can help you with any Foreign Exchange needs, please email or call (800) 447‑4133.
Want to learn more about international finance, economics, and global events? Sign up for our other Foreign Exchange emails and videos!
Follow City National Bank on social media:
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Google Plus YouTube
Investment and Insurance Products:
Are Not insured by the FDIC or any other federal government agency
Are Not deposits of or guaranteed by a Bank or any Bank Affiliate
May Lose Value
This report is for general information and education only and was compiled from data and sources believed to be reliable. City National Bank does not warrant that it is accurate or complete. Opinions expressed and estimates or projections given are those of the authors as of the date of the report with no obligation to update or notify of inaccuracy or change. This report is not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument discussed. It is not specific investment advice. Financial instruments discussed may not be suitable for the reader. Readers must make independent investment decisions based on their own investment objectives and financial situations. Prices and financial instruments discussed are subject to change without notice. Instruments denominated in a foreign currency are subject to exchange rate and other risks. The Bank (and its clients or associated persons) may engage in transactions inconsistent with this report and may buy from or sell to clients or others the financial instruments discussed on a principal basis. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or further published by any person without the written consent of City National Bank. Please cite source when quoting.
Unsubscribe from this list  |  Update email preferences
This message has been sent to Please do not reply to this email. To ensure the delivery of future emails, please add to your email address book or safe sender list.
Copyright ©2018 City National Bank – All Rights Reserved.
350 South Grand Avenue, 12th Floor, Los Angeles, CA 90071
City National Bank is a subsidiary of Royal Bank of Canada.
Equal Housing Lender
NMLSR ID# 536994 | City National Bank Member FDIC


Popular posts from this blog

Acquisitions or Alliances: What's Your Growth Strategy?