On The Radar: Will the escalation in the U.S. – China trade dispute derail the bull market?

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OnTheRadar
May 2019
FAQs on the Markets and Economy
On the Radar is a biweekly publication providing quick and concise answers to the topical investment and economic questions that are on investors' minds.
New questions in this issue:
1.
Will the escalation in the U.S. – China trade dispute derail the bull market?
While it has been our opinion that investors have recently been too confident over progress in trade negotiations, given the strength of recovery from last year's correction, we have also warned that consolidation period or pullback in stock prices would be normal.
2.
Has the tariff conflict altered your view of what the Fed will do this year?
We continue to believe the Fed is on hold for the remainder of the year. But the escalation of trade tensions has increased some economic risks.
3.
Are rising trade tensions with China a threat to the U.S. economy?
Each escalation in trade tensions with China has incrementally weakened the U.S. economic outlook somewhat, but not enough, we believe, to derail the expansion.
4.
What do rising trade tensions mean for EM Asia equities?
Although trade concerns may keep markets volatile in the near term, we believe fundamentals remain supportive and indicate we could be poised to begin another cycle of outperformance.
5.
What factors are driving strong municipal market returns year-to-date?
Investment grade and high yield municipal bond performance year-to-date is exceptional with the Bloomberg Barclays family of indices posting returns of 3.83% and 4.95% for these market segments, respectively.
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