The global economy has clawed back about 60% of the output lost in the first half of the year, but recoveries in most parts of the world have already slowed, and prospects now vary according to success in controlling the virus and the policy response.
Recent vaccine news has been very encouraging, lifting the long-term outlook, but the boost to economic activity is unlikely to come until later next year. In the near term, we expect global growth will continue to moderate as fiscal support wanes, the reopening boost to activity after lockdowns fades, and many virus containment measures are either maintained or tightened.
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