The Week Ahead: The Homestretch a.k.a Q4 2020

Foreign Exchange: The Week Ahead
The Homestretch a.k.a Q4 2020
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David Atkinson
David Atkinson
Foreign Exchange Sales Manager
The good news about this upcoming week?  We will have put three quarters of 2020 behind us.  The bad news?  Well, think about what we have coming up for the fourth quarter.  I remember after Covid first hit hard in March that we saw people putting holiday lights back up to try to remember how happy things were back in December.  I wonder if we will see holiday lights going earlier than usual as a sign of trying to get to the end of this year.

Until then though, we will go week by week.  There is a load of critical data coming up this week.  In the U.S., I will be very interested in the consumer confidence data followed by the second shot at Q2 GDP on Wednesday.  It remains a gut punch to see data like -31.7%, but in this crazy year it is expected that we will have a huge rebound from these miserable levels once we start seeing Q3 numbers.  Thursday has income and consumption data and weekly unemployment claims data.

All this gears up to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.  Markets seem to be back to taking this data more seriously.  It was never that markets thought it unimportant, but in the throes of the lockdowns it was almost impossible to know what kind of crazy numbers would we get.  Market expectations were off by millions and this was treated as no big deal because everything was in such chaos.

Outside the U.S. CPI data for Japan and Germany will garner a bit of attention.  Japan has its usual slew of important data, including retail sales, industrial production and the quarterly Tankan manufacturing survey.  We also get a look at euro area unemployment late this week.  Japan’s jobless rate is released on Friday as well.

Outside of data releases, there are several important European meetings this week surrounding continued Brexit negotiations and the controversy over the Internal Market Bill.

Dare I wonder what kind of unexpected events will happen this week, but Tuesday opens the 2020 debate season with the first face-off between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

Buckle up.
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